When Israel was in Egypt’s land...

...Let my people go.

Via The Hill

A swarm of "thousands of bees" gathered outside the White House this morning.

I wonder what the other 9 plagues will look like?


Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted at RedState.

Does Chuck DeVore Have The Momentum? The numbers are telling me yes.

After the SUSA poll came out, Erick and I both wrote in support of Chuck DeVore. I can't really speak for Erick, but I am sticking with Chuck because I believe he is the right candidate on the issues and the late movement in this race is all going to Chuck DeVore.

As the day progressed and the standard arguments fleshed out, I realized that Fiorina and Campbell are both in a bit of trouble going into this last month of the campaign.

Fiorina is collapsing in all of the meaningful groups, Campbell has hit his ceiling and will begin to decline shortly. This probably explains why the Fiorina campaign has been all but colluding with sketchy 527's in order to attack Chuck DeVore.

This is DeVore's race to win if he can capitalize on his opponents apparent weaknesses with the voters.

This takes people like those of you here at RedState to take the initiative to make phone calls for Chuck.

Below the fold is a breakdown of the SUSA poll by Joshua Trevino of the DeVore Campaign. Here are some key take aways from it.

Self Identified Conservatives, Pro-Lifers, and 2nd Amendment supporters are fleeing Fiorina like the plague. They aren't going to Campbell, they're going to Chuck.

You should too.

Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted to RedState

Now, we're not especial fans of the methodology that SurveyUSA uses -- random-digit dialing and no ballot titles have the effect, we believe, of presenting a distorted picture of the race, and one that almost certainly artificially depresses Chuck DeVore's support. That said, it's useful to look at the trends from the last SurveyUSA poll to this one. They reveal three things:

1) Chuck DeVore is surging, with conservatives and core primary-election voters beginning a major shift toward him.
2) Carly Fiorina is collapsing, as core conservative groups abandon her -- despite a spate of major endorsements.
3) Tom Campbell remains essentially static.

Going through the cross tabs on relevant groups, the numbers speak for themselves. First, in overall support for each of the three candidates, we see that Fiorina is the only one to decline -- and to just within the margin of error with DeVore:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 33.64% 34.85% +1.21%
Fiorina 27.14% 23.9% -3.24%
DeVore 13.57% 15.32% +1.75%

Next, we look at self-identified conservatives, where we see a much more pronounced shift from Fiorina to DeVore:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 30.84% 31.07% +0.23%
Fiorina 27.92% 24.85% -3.07%
DeVore 14.61% 17.46% +2.85%

Third, we turn to pro-life voters, where Fiorina's support simply plummets -- despite locking up pro-life endorsements. The beneficiary? Chuck DeVore:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 31.19% 29.78% -1.41%
Fiorina 27.46% 22.79% -4.67%
DeVore 15.25% 19.49% +4.24

Finally, among gun owners, Fiorina's support is flatly eviscerated, and Chuck DeVore picks up a substantial number of them:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 33.98% 34.38% +0.4%
Fiorina 27.8% 21.09% -6.71%
DeVore 15.06% 18.75% +3.69%

Bottom line? Fiorina lose significant numbers within these vital primary-election groups across the board; Campbell hovers about his baseline; and DeVore posts significant increases in each one. In the final four weeks of this primary election, a sorting-out process is underway as conservatives decide between Fiorina and DeVore -- with the winner almost certainly going on to beat Campbell.

Right now, the momentum is 100% toward Chuck DeVore. Having expended all her ammunition on big-name endorsements, it's difficult to see what Fiorina has left beyond a media blitz that would prove ruinous for a campaign that finished Q1 2010 de facto in the red. (Note especially that the Palin and major pro-life endorsements of Fiorina came before this poll was conducted, and she still lost huge numbers of pro-lifers and presumptive social conservatives to DeVore.) Carly Fiorina has stretched her celebrity, her cash, and her DC-insider connections to the limit.

All Chuck DeVore's got, by contrast, is a passionate base, a ground game, an authentic appeal, a growing groundswell of support, and the enthusiasm of the grassroots.

It'll be enough.

SUSA CA Senate Poll *Correction*

Although the big news has been that Poizner is now within striking distance of Meg Whitman in the CA Gov Republican Primary, I am going to focus on the CA Senate race poll results via SUSA.

As I pointed out here (also at RedState.com), and is now confirmed by SUSA, Chuck DeVore has jumped 5 points in the polls. This positive movement for Chuck DeVore is contrary to the negative movement of Campbell and Fiorina in the 18-49 demographic*, 5 and 10 point drops respectively.

This movement, both positive and negative, is a sign of the fluidity and indecision still existing in this race. This is buttressed by the 23% who are still undecided.

The Republican primary voters of CA, who identified as 62% conservative, are watching and waiting for the choice to step forward. This weekend, while this poll was being taken, I believe that leader took a large step forward.

Chuck DeVore is the proven consevative that is needed for California, from the Delta Smelt to Illegal Immigration, Chuck DeVore gets it.

The key take away for the SUSA poll of the CA Senate Republican primary is that Chuck DeVore is trending up while Campbell and Fiorina have a loss of 15 points combined.

Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted to RedState

* Added for clarification after posting.

DeVore Surging in CA Republican Senate Primary?: California Dreamin'

...it's overwhelmingly likely that DeVore has increased his support by 50% in the last month.

I was looking over some of the Senate Polling from RCP this afternoon and when I got to the CA Republican primary I saw something that sparked my interest. Chuck DeVore has had a sustained surge in support in the latest rounds of polling.

So what does a 4-5 point surge in support actually mean? What can we really take away from these polls, and how trust worthy is the information we are getting?

The polls themselves - specifically the SUSA and Capitol Weekly - don't appear to be bad to me, granted I am not a polling expert. Both seem to have a decent size pool and both are of likely voters. This isn't to say that these polls are faultless, just that their faults fall within what one would expect.

Let's walk through these a bit and I will explain a.) why I believe the momentum is shifting in this race and b.) why Chuck DeVore needs your support today more than ever.

First Campbell and Fiorina*, both appear to have reached their ceilings of support. The Capitol Weekly poll showed support for Fiorina at a low and can probably be looked at as an out-lier for Fiorina. That bit of out-lier information, and what I will address next, could prove to be a glimpse into how this race is breaking as we get closer to the June primary election.

Here is what I am seeing; SUSA and CW both have Campbell tracking in the low-mid 30's, as well, they both have DeVore picking up steam with a 6 point bounce to 14%. The two polls diverge on Carly. This leads me to believe that both polls are probably showing the effects of movement in this race.

The only candidate benefiting from this movement is DeVore. One possible reason for this movement is the newly released radio ads the DeVore campaign put up on April 7th, just prior to these polls being conducted.

As people hear the conservative message that Chuck DeVore brings to the voters of California, his position in the polls will increase. Campbell and Fiorina have peaked.

It's time to back the conservative.

I will leave you with a quote from our own Neil Stevens of Unlikely Voter fame...

The math is complicated, but with two consecutive polls at 14%, the probabilities compound and it's overwhelmingly likely that DeVore has increased his support by 50% in the last month.

DeVore gaining traction as we approach the final month.

Give to Chuck!

Help him make the key push in May in order to win in June.

Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted at RedState.

* The Fiorina campaign knows this to be true as well. They tipped their hand when they attacked Josh trevino by name after a press release by the DeVore Campaign highlighting the Capitol West Poll.

Live Steaming the HCR Summit

JOIN THE LIVE CHAT

VISIT WHITEHOUSE.GOV

I must admit that this is rather cool.

Hey, Chris Matthews, Screw YOU!

[h/t Gateway Pundit - via Fox Nation]



Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted at RedState

Crist's Boy Goes Down

At least that is the rumor going around. Good riddance.

Aaron B. Gardner

P.S. Donate to Marco Rubio Here

A Choice Not An Echo

In my lifetime the greatest electoral achievements made by the Republican party were made possible by offering a choice rather than an echo. The Reagan Revolution and the '94 Republican take over of the House were both examples of this. Once again in 2010 we will be given the option of offering a choice rather than an echo in Senate and Congressional races around the nation.

With just 55% of conservatives considering themselves Republicans, 73% of Republicans believing our leaders in DC are out of touch with the base, and Tea Party candidates coming out on top of the GOP in a generic three way ballot test, I believe that people are actively looking for that choice and refuse to accept an echo.

In the race to unseat Barbara Boxer from the Senate we have two Republican challengers. One offers a distinct choice and the other offers up an echo. Below are some text and videos on the subject of climate change from Barbara Boxer, Carly Fiorina* and Chuck DeVore. Let's take a look at these.


First up...Babs

Environmental laws protect public health and preserve natural America for generations to come. A clean and healthy environment goes hand in hand with a strong economy, from California tourism to the creation of "green jobs".

Next up Carly...

We need to talk about climate change and energy policy at the same time. You really can't solve one without the other ... I think we should embrace the opportunities that creation of clean green technology presents, the opportunity to create new jobs...

in conjunction with this video...




Anybody else hearing echoes?**


Now let's look at Chuck [This is an exclusive I obtained from Chuck DeVore] ...

There's no such thing as a state-created 'green job' that doesn't illustrate Bastiat's broken-window fallacy. Enduring job creation and economic growth are the result of a free market, not government intervention. When you hear a Democrat -- or a liberal Republican -- talk about environmental regulation resulting in job creation, grab your wallet and start looking at the help-wanted ads. A policy that doesn't place jobs and economic growth first -- not co-equal with environmentalism, but first -- is a failure of leadership.

In conjunction with this video...



The choice is clear, as is the echo. 2010 has the potential to be a wave year for Republicans. We have a seven point advantage on the generic ballot***, and a strong batch of conservatives willing to capitalize on that in order to be elected to the Senate.

I stand with Chuck as he offers a choice to the primary voters of California rather than an echo. Where do you stand?

Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted at RedState.

* Note to NRSC, notice that I made a clickable link to both Republican primary candidates, this despite the fact that I have publicly endorsed Chuck DeVore. Take the hint.

** Carly Fiorina has since jumped on the climategate bandwagon. But let me be clear here, Carly Fiorina has a public record of accepting the false "science" of climate change and policy positions which would lead to more regulations and financial burdens on businesses, especially small businesses. This certainly makes one question what Fiorina really believes and whether her change in stances is nothing more than a simple political calculation rather than a principled stand.

*** This stat changed while I was writing this, the newest Rasmussen generic ballot shows a 4 point advantage to Republicans. The overall point remains true.

The Irony of Harry Reid

Yes, I believe they were called Democrats. Thanks for the reminder Harry.

Aaron B. Gardner

[update] Read Michelle Malkin and Dan Riehl's take as well.[/update]


Crossposted at RedState