Does Chuck DeVore Have The Momentum? The numbers are telling me yes.

After the SUSA poll came out, Erick and I both wrote in support of Chuck DeVore. I can't really speak for Erick, but I am sticking with Chuck because I believe he is the right candidate on the issues and the late movement in this race is all going to Chuck DeVore.

As the day progressed and the standard arguments fleshed out, I realized that Fiorina and Campbell are both in a bit of trouble going into this last month of the campaign.

Fiorina is collapsing in all of the meaningful groups, Campbell has hit his ceiling and will begin to decline shortly. This probably explains why the Fiorina campaign has been all but colluding with sketchy 527's in order to attack Chuck DeVore.

This is DeVore's race to win if he can capitalize on his opponents apparent weaknesses with the voters.

This takes people like those of you here at RedState to take the initiative to make phone calls for Chuck.

Below the fold is a breakdown of the SUSA poll by Joshua Trevino of the DeVore Campaign. Here are some key take aways from it.

Self Identified Conservatives, Pro-Lifers, and 2nd Amendment supporters are fleeing Fiorina like the plague. They aren't going to Campbell, they're going to Chuck.

You should too.

Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted to RedState

Now, we're not especial fans of the methodology that SurveyUSA uses -- random-digit dialing and no ballot titles have the effect, we believe, of presenting a distorted picture of the race, and one that almost certainly artificially depresses Chuck DeVore's support. That said, it's useful to look at the trends from the last SurveyUSA poll to this one. They reveal three things:

1) Chuck DeVore is surging, with conservatives and core primary-election voters beginning a major shift toward him.
2) Carly Fiorina is collapsing, as core conservative groups abandon her -- despite a spate of major endorsements.
3) Tom Campbell remains essentially static.

Going through the cross tabs on relevant groups, the numbers speak for themselves. First, in overall support for each of the three candidates, we see that Fiorina is the only one to decline -- and to just within the margin of error with DeVore:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 33.64% 34.85% +1.21%
Fiorina 27.14% 23.9% -3.24%
DeVore 13.57% 15.32% +1.75%

Next, we look at self-identified conservatives, where we see a much more pronounced shift from Fiorina to DeVore:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 30.84% 31.07% +0.23%
Fiorina 27.92% 24.85% -3.07%
DeVore 14.61% 17.46% +2.85%

Third, we turn to pro-life voters, where Fiorina's support simply plummets -- despite locking up pro-life endorsements. The beneficiary? Chuck DeVore:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 31.19% 29.78% -1.41%
Fiorina 27.46% 22.79% -4.67%
DeVore 15.25% 19.49% +4.24

Finally, among gun owners, Fiorina's support is flatly eviscerated, and Chuck DeVore picks up a substantial number of them:

Candidate April 22nd May 10th Trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell 33.98% 34.38% +0.4%
Fiorina 27.8% 21.09% -6.71%
DeVore 15.06% 18.75% +3.69%

Bottom line? Fiorina lose significant numbers within these vital primary-election groups across the board; Campbell hovers about his baseline; and DeVore posts significant increases in each one. In the final four weeks of this primary election, a sorting-out process is underway as conservatives decide between Fiorina and DeVore -- with the winner almost certainly going on to beat Campbell.

Right now, the momentum is 100% toward Chuck DeVore. Having expended all her ammunition on big-name endorsements, it's difficult to see what Fiorina has left beyond a media blitz that would prove ruinous for a campaign that finished Q1 2010 de facto in the red. (Note especially that the Palin and major pro-life endorsements of Fiorina came before this poll was conducted, and she still lost huge numbers of pro-lifers and presumptive social conservatives to DeVore.) Carly Fiorina has stretched her celebrity, her cash, and her DC-insider connections to the limit.

All Chuck DeVore's got, by contrast, is a passionate base, a ground game, an authentic appeal, a growing groundswell of support, and the enthusiasm of the grassroots.

It'll be enough.